Suzuka has a way of stripping the teams of their marketing buzz and leaving only the real pace and confidence between driver and machine. The track is 5.807km long, the race runs for 53 laps, and it remains the only figure of eight circuit in F1. Starting positions in Japan are especially important when we look at the stats that in 35 Suzuka races, the winner has come from the front row 30 times.
Two grand prix into 2026, Mercedes has already put a proper grip on both championships. George Russell won in Australia, Kimi Antonelli won in China, and the team arrived in Japan leading the constructors’ standings on 98 points.
Ferrari are second on 67, McLaren are down on 18 after a miserable start, while Red Bull and Racing Bulls are tied on 12. Haas has become one of the teams to watch with 17 points so far.
Mercedes opened the weekend by going one two in first practice, with Russell ahead of Antonelli. Second practice looked a bit different with Oscar Piastri putting McLaren on top with 1:30.133, just 0.092 seconds clear of Antonelli and 0.205 ahead of Russell. Lando Norris was fourth, while Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton locked out fifth and sixth. Max Verstappen never looked fully comfortable and ended the day 10th in FP2. It was a strong Friday for Mercedes, but it was also McLaren’s most encouraging track session of the season so far.
Mercedes still deserves a favorite status. McLaren suddenly looks like it might be catching up. Ferrari is close enough to shake up the starting positions. Red Bull is still carrying Verstappen, which means they are never safely out of any race story, but the car does not look like the best one here. Behind them, Haas, Williams, Audi and Racing Bulls all have at least some reasons to believe points are there.
Picks And Predictions for Japan GP
The safest winner pick is George Russell. He has the championship lead, and a calm attitude that usually works well in Japan. He doesn’t need to produce a miracle lap or a spectacular recovery drive, just not make any catastrophic mistakes and bring the victory home.
A bit bolder and riskier pick would be Oscar Piastri for the win. Friday gave him the best single piece of evidence of anyone not driving a Mercedes. The risk attached to that call is obvious, because McLaren’s season has already been troublesome and the team is still digging out from reliability issues in China. But if one driver is capable of challenging Mercedes this weekend, Piastri looks like the man.
For Ferrari, Lewis Hamilton might be a slightly safer podium pick over Leclerc, mostly because Suzuka tends to reward experience and confidence through the high speed flow sections. That doesn’t mean Leclerc can’t beat him. It just means that if Ferrari is collecting a top three result on Sunday, Hamilton feels like a stronger bet.
Verstappen is the one who can shake up the standings if Red Bull gets qualifying right. That would be the major warning for other teams going into the race. We can argue that the Red Bull is only the fourth fastest team, but Max is a very unpredictable driver. He’s the one who can go from lower positions to the podium which means he’s still a threat to Mercedes and Ferrari. Still, based on current evidence, he looks more like a top six pick than a default podium lock.
Mercedes Arrives as the Team to Beat
The easiest call for Sunday is that Mercedes should be at the front. They’ve earned that. This is not hype built on one good practice session or a driver sounding confident in front of cameras. It’s built on results.
Russell took pole and the win in Australia. Antonelli followed by winning in China, becoming the second youngest race winner in Formula 1 history, after Max Verstappen. Mercedes has opened the season with two straight one two finishes in grand prix, and that is exactly why the team brought a 31 point constructors’ lead over Ferrari into Japan.
Russell is probably going to be the driver to beat on Sunday since he has way more experience than Antonelli, who’s only 19 years old.
As far as Mercedes’ car, the controversy is still the main talking point, at least until June 1st when FIA will enforce compression tests under hot operating conditions (130°C) to close the engine loophole. As for so called two phase front wings, where one part closes in the predicted time period, while the second part stays down a bit longer, gaining time for the driver, the FIA is still unsure of how to solve it. Other teams on the grid have been especially upset with Toto Wolff who claimed that rivals are just stirring a storm in a teacup, while he claimed that the actual advantage is very small. Some Mercedes insiders however, stated that the difference might be 2 to 3 tenths.
The best scenario for Mercedes would be starting from the pole position, instead of getting stuck in the dirty air and waiting for strategy to save them and maintain a good pace till the finish line.
McLaren is back in the Fight
McLaren came into Japan badly needing one good weekend. Their title defense has already been thrown off course. Both McLarens failed to start the previous race in China, which explains why the team that won both championships last year is third in the constructors’ standings with only 18 points. Norris has already been talking in the long term, saying McLaren can still become the best car this year. That may sound ambitious but not impossible since McLaren has recovered from worse looking positions before.
A glimpse of hope is already there with Piastri’s fastest time in FP2 being the clearest signal that McLaren may have reached a circuit that suits this car far better than the opening two races. Norris was fourth in the same session. The car looked much more natural in the fast direction changes, and that alone changes the tone of the weekend.
Piastri is the most tempting wild card pick on the grid right now because he just topped a Friday session at Suzuka, one of the hardest and least forgiving tracks. If McLaren qualifies on the front row, Piastri immediately becomes a proper win threat. At this circuit, track position can do a lot of the heavy lifting once the lights go out.
Norris is slightly harder to place. His own comments before the race were optimistic which is usually a decent sign that the team’s internal picture is not as bleak as the standings make it look. Norris being on the podium is possible although victory still might be out of reach. McLaren is back in the race, but they’re far from taking over.
Ferrari Is Lurking from Behind
Ferrari has started the season well enough to sit second in the championship, but they have also spent the first two rounds behind Mercedes. That may be where they stay in Japan. The points say the team are doing plenty right: 67 already, comfortably ahead of McLaren and the rest of the midfield. Hamilton also arrives at Suzuka after a podium in China, his first with Ferrari, which gives hope to devastating Ferrari fans.
Friday suggested Ferrari is very much in the fight, just not on the very top. Leclerc and Hamilton ran fifth and sixth in FP2, exactly the kind of positions that say a team is competitive but not a threat. That’s not a disaster for Ferrari since this track can still reward a sharp strategy call or one perfectly judged qualifying lap.
Hamilton is especially interesting here with five Suzuka wins and a ton of experience behind him. Lewis knows what a car should feel like through these corners and knows how much can be won or lost in the pace sections. If Ferrari comes up with a good strategy, Hamilton can easily turn this into a podium.
The issue for Ferrari is that their weekend still looks shaky. Mercedes appears more complete. McLaren may have more upside if Friday pace carries over. Ferrari looks like the team waiting for one of those two to slip. A win would be difficult, but a podium feels entirely realistic.
Red Bull is Depending on Verstappen More Than the Car
This circuit has been one of Verstappen’s strongest venues, but Red Bull is not coming this year as a threat to the top teams. Max is a four time consecutive winner here from 2022 through 2025. Under normal circumstances, that would make him the automatic headline entering the weekend. But these are not normal circumstances.
The current Red Bull picture is awkward. Verstappen came into Japan eighth in the drivers’ standings on eight points, finishing seventh in FP1 and tenth in FP2. Max has been openly frustrated with the team’s struggles this season, while again criticizing the new power unit regulations. That’s not the tone of a team hiding a dominant car in reserve but of one searching for answers.
Even so, Verstappen remains the single hardest driver to write off completely. If the race gets even slightly complicated, he is exactly the sort of driver who can drag an imperfect car onto the podium.
That still leaves Red Bull in an unusual position: dangerous, but not convincing. Right now Verstappen looks more like a spoiler than the favorite. He can ruin someone else’s script. He just doesn’t look like he owns the script himself.
Haas, Racing Bulls and the Rest of the Midfield Have a Real Opening
One of the more enjoyable surprises is that the midfield doesn’t look boring at all. Haas is fourth in the constructors’ standings on 17 points, one point behind McLaren, and Ollie Bearman is fifth in the drivers’ standings. This is not a typo. Haas have started the year well enough to be taken seriously as a team that can keep embarrassing bigger names when the opportunity appears. Bearman being inside the FP2 top ten proves it.
Racing Bulls also deserve mention. They have 12 points, equal to Red Bull, which has never happened before. The gap between the lower midfield and the lower end of the top teams is not wide enough at the moment for anyone to relax. If Suzuka gives us one Safety Car at the right time, Racing Bulls can absolutely convert that into points again.
Alpine has 10 points and looks like one of those teams that could finish anywhere from 7th to 13th place.
Audi and Williams looked more upbeat on Friday because Nico Hulkenberg and Alex Albon both finished FP2 in the top ten. This doesn’t mean a podium for these teams, but it does put both drivers in a battle for points.
Cadillac and Aston Martin still look like longer shots. Aston Martin, in particular, has endured a bleak start and remains without a point. Friday did little to brighten that. Alonso was only 19th in FP2 after arriving late to Suzuka following the birth of his first child. There may still be a route into the points with the right strategy, but on straight form Aston Martin doesn’t look ready to get in the first half of the standings.
Suzuka’s Usual Rules Still Apply
The track doesn’t usually create disorders. It can produce drama while still staying within common rules that follow the Japan GP.
Qualifying is a big deal; the front row has a huge historical advantage, and the track tends to reward cars that are stable through high speed changes of direction rather than cars that are merely decent under braking.
Last year in Japan we had a pit stop time loss of 23.75 seconds, 28 overtakes, and a Safety Car probability of 50%. That’s just enough uncertainty to keep strategy relevant, but not enough to make the race a lottery.
As for the weather forecast, we are most likely to see a dry track with some clouds and moderate winds.
Regardless of the weather, strategies and any other unpredictable circumstances, Suzuka race remains one of the tracks to favor the teams already quickest by Saturday afternoon. That points straight back toward Mercedes, with McLaren and Ferrari as the closest threats.
